Business Energy Market Update: November 2026

Unfortunately, the end of October did not bring the much needed relief to the recent bullish wholesale market we all wanted. Wholesale gas rose roughly 40% through the month, with its power counterpart chasing close behind. Day ahead gas rose from 178p/th to 250p/th, and power rose from £160/MWh to £206.50/MWh - an increase of nearly 30%.

The picture was equally dismal further out. November gas rose from 181.30p/th to 255p/th and summer 27 gas was up from 130p/th to 183.50p/th. Even summer 28 saw an uncharacteristically large increase, from 82.50p/th to 110p/th.

Power was much the same. November 26 jumped from £149.50/MWh to £202/MWh - up 35%. Summer 27 has moved from £104.75/MWh to £138.50/MWh, while winter 27 rose from £105.50/MWh to £137.25/MWh and summer 28 from £71.25/MWh to £87.75/MWh.

The power situation last month wasn't helped by lower than usual wind generation, despite the arrival of the first storms of the season.

Much of the increase can be attributed to the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Further attacks on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy infrastructure, coupled with renewed US strikes have increasingly seen the market start to price in a prolonged period of tight supply much more heavily.

Continued concerns over EU gas storage have done nothing to calm nerves for this winter either. Storage was 74.9% full on 28 October - almost 8 percentage points lower than the 82.8% at the same point last year - which means around 10% less gas in store. Closer to home, UK storage sat at just 33.7% of capacity, with Centrica considering a permanent shut down of Rough - the UK's largest facility - in the face of the government's refusal to support the loss-making operation.

Elsewhere, Chancellor John Healey used last month's Autumn Budget to set what he called "a new course on energy", with the aim of bringing UK energy costs in line with Europe. The biggest win for business is an expanded British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS), which will give around 10,000 energy-intensive manufacturers a 20-25% discount on their electricity bills. Applications for the scheme are open now and close on 30 November 2026, so if you're a manufacturer it's worth checking whether you qualify before the deadline.

10,000 manufacturers is only the tip of the iceberg though, and the Chancellor is well aware businesses across many sectors are struggling with rising energy bills, and the recent decision to allow the Jackdaw field to proceed could potentially provide resources to relieve pressure elsewhere in the economy. Labour’s decision to push for a net zero economy is the right one, and while the UK will continue to consume vast quantities of gas for the next few decades regardless of policy, producing and profiting from our own supply makes sense. The case for Rosebank is more nuanced, however. While the oil it produces will go to Europe for processing before returning to the UK, the argument could still be made that we will consume the fossil fuel regardless of its origin.

In addition to the BICS scheme the government has promised that no new policy costs will be added to energy bills until the 2027 spending review, while the main rates of the Climate Change Levy on electricity and LPG will be frozen from April 2028. These changes are small and with the recent increases to TNUoS and the RAB charge, it could be argued there was no room for more charges to be levied against business anyway!

Meanwhile, as the markets continue to adjust to the idea of tighter LNG supplies for the next few years, the rest of the world has been racing to fill the 20% gap in global supply left by Qatar and the other producers reliant on cargo transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US has been the biggest winner so far with LNG exports rising 23% in the first half of 2026 - the fastest growth since large-scale exports began in 2016, driven in part by the shale boom. Analysts expect exports to top 120 million tonnes this year, another record, and developers approved a record volume of new export projects in the first half of the year. Europe has leaned heavily on that supply, with 63% of its LNG coming from the US in the first quarter, rising to 81% for the UK.

The bad news is that cargo prices remained high throughout the summer, meaning the usual seasonal dip in prices, which traditionally allows storage facilities to replenish their reserves, never materialised. As a result, Europe's LNG imports were 3% lower in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, as it competed with Asia for fewer, more expensive cargoes. It is now likely damage caused to Qatar's Ras Laffan complex in March and the conflict in general will depress global LNG supply by as much as 15% to the end of the decade. For businesses, that means today's tight market could last well beyond this winter, and it's another reason not to bank on prices falling quickly when planning your next contract.

Whether your contract is coming up for renewal, you're currently out of contract, or you'd simply like a second opinion on the rates you're paying, the team at Clear Utility Solutions is here to help. Get in touch with the team on our usual channels and we'll be happy to talk things through.