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As August got underway things were looking good, wind generation increased and at the same time temperatures began to ease and the market responded accordingly. By mid-month, optimism that peace might be achieved in Ukraine saw wholesale prices continue their slight downward trend.

Wholesale energy prices rose across the board this month with the largest gains being seen on deliveries for this year, especially August which saw a 10% gain. Gas prices followed a similar trend although the short term gains were softer in comparison.

In a dramatic contrast to May, day ahead power saw a huge swing in June. At the start of the month, predictions for wind output were significantly above seasonal norms for the first week of June and as a result on 02/06 power was trading as low as £27/MWh. By the end of the month, this was up to £91/MWh as a combination of high temperatures and lower wind output put pressure on supplies.

There was precious little movement over May for most of the forward contracts for gas and power up to Winter this year. Day ahead power closed the month roughly 7% down on its start as did July’s deliveries whereas June remained relatively stable.

April’s spot prices continued their downward trend from March as good weather and fair wind output helped to reduce reliance on gas for power leading to a whopping 13% reduction on day ahead gas contracts.

Day ahead prices eased slightly from their positions at the start of the month with both gas and electricity shedding 10% percent of their value as warmer weather saw demand soften. This trend extended into prices for delivery this summer, although planned maintenance of Norwegian facilities beginning later this week and continuing throughout the coming months has done much to keep prices higher than they might otherwise have been.

By the end of February 2025 contracts for day ahead delivery were on the way down as the UK enjoyed a taste of spring sunshine and some warmer day time temperatures. On Friday 28th, power was trading at £94 M/Wh down from £112 M/Wh at the start of the month and gas had dropped to 109 p/th down from 134 p/th.

Predictably January 2025 saw the market for day ahead and February deliveries rise markedly throughout the month with gains of around 10% on both fuels. Price drivers were a mix of unplanned outages both in the North Sea and at some LNG Export facilities and also geopolitical influences.

At the beginning of December, the outlook was becoming bleak with Russian gas flows beginning to tail off and the change in weather eating into European gas stocks causing wholesale prices to rise.

As November 2024 drew to a close and Winter came upon us temperatures started to drop and the energy market rose. Early reports of a colder than average Winter for the UK predictably saw rises across all forward contracts out to Winter 26 for gas and electricity.